Publicaciones
Autor(es): Author(s): Mario D. Tello
Este trabajo estima los efectos derrame o de spillovers asociados al inadecuado comportamiento de las personas (debido al incumplimiento del confinamiento laboral y de la protección en salud) sobre la pobreza monetaria del Perú en el período COVID-19 entre el trimestre 2020.II al trimestre 2021.IV. Para ello usa un diseño no experimental de Control Sintético con Spillovers desarrollado por Cao & Dowd (2022). Estos efectos son medidos para 59 provincias, denominadas de tratamiento por tener una tasa de contagiados por COVID-19 mayor al 1%, y 31 provincias denominadas de control con tasas de contagiados por COVID-19 menores o iguales al 1%. De las estimaciones se obtiene que diecisiete provincias tratadas tuvieron efectos spillovers estadísticamente significativos en por lo menos un criterio de las 9 fuentes de spillovers. En promedio para las 17 provincias, cerca del 33% del incremento de la pobreza en el periodo COVID-19 se explica por los efectos spillovers asociados al inadecuado comportamiento de las personas.
This work estimates the effects of spillovers or spillovers associated with the inappropriate behavior of people (due to non-compliance with labor confinement and health protection) on monetary poverty in Peru in the COVID-19 period between the 2020 quarter.II to the quarter 2021. IV. For this, a non-experimental design of Synthetic Control with Spillovers developed by Cao & Dowd (2022) is used. These effects are measured for 59 provinces, called treatment provinces because they have a rate of infection by COVID-19 greater than 1%, and 31 provinces called control provinces with rates of infection by COVID-19 less than or equal to 1%. From the estimations it is obtained that seventeen treated provinces had statistically significant spillover effects in at least one criterion of the 9 sources of spillovers. On average for the 17 provinces, close to 33% of the increase in poverty in the COVID-19 period is explained by the spillover effects associated with the inappropriate behavior of people
Fecha de publicación:
Febrero, 2023
Date of publication:
February, 2023
Español (Original) 
English